Ontario home prices have declined sharply over the past two years, and several experts expect conditions to worsen further in 2026 before improving. Prices fell 6.4 per cent in the GTA last year, while new home sales hit a multi-decade low in 2025. Some national forecasts project modest price growth elsewhere in Canada, but Toronto and Vancouver are expected to see further year-over-year declines. Factors cited include rising unemployment, reduced international student numbers, geopolitical tensions, and a wave of mortgage renewals that will significantly increase monthly payments for many homeowners.

Experts differ on the outlook beyond continued softness. Some believe prices will keep drifting lower in 2026 with no meaningful recovery until at least 2027, while others expect the market to stabilize gradually. Economists note that without rapid population growth, very low interest rates, or strong economic expansion, significant price increases are unlikely. For buyers, particularly first-time purchasers, the current market offers more choice and less urgency, though advice varies on whether to buy now or wait longer to see how conditions evolve.

Source: CTV News